Real estate in long time upcycle; housing to recover fully: Industry

The Indian real estate sector has transformed significantly during the past few years and the pandemic has accelerated the transformation. The residential real estate sector’s comeback after the second-wave in Q2 2021 was a phenomenal, sharp V-shaped one. As per ANAROCK Research, the first nine months of 2021 saw 27% higher new residential supply than the full-year supply in 2020 across the top seven cities. In 2020, 1.28 lakh units of new residential supply were added across the top seven cities of India, while sales were clocked at 1.38 lakh units. From the previous peak of 2014, 2020 supply was down by 77% and sales were down by 60%.

The sales during the Jan-Sep period in 2021 was higher too. Units sold during the period across the top seven cities was up by 5% than the whole of 2020, ANAROCK data shows.

"The Indian residential real estate market seems to have embarked on a long-term upcycle, and 2022 is very likely to fare better than 2021," says Anuj Puri, chairman, ANAROCK Group. Compared to 2021, he adds, the residential real estate market in 2022 will see lower volatility and new supply and sales may reach 2019 levels by the next year i.e., 2022.

India’s office sector is coming out of the woods too, with demand back to pre-record levels. This recovery is expected to continue in 2022, even if marred by the new Covid-19 variant. "Gross absorption in 2022 should be about 15-20% higher than this year as occupier confidence is back in the market. In terms of global capital chasing real estate, the office will continue to remain a dominant sector," says Ramesh Nair, CEO, India and managing director, Market Development, Asia, Colliers.

2022 is expected to emerge better than before. The residential sector is likely to be a major beneficiary in the upcoming year. "The Indian housing market is expected to recover completely next year," says Bhushan Nemlekar, Director, Sumit Woods. As per Nemlekar, the trend of demand remaining buoyant can be attributed to several factors like low-interest rates, an overall improvement in the job market, resumed economic activity, and an increasing desire to own physical assets during times of unprecedented uncertainty.

It will also be the year for developers to optimise cost, says Nemlekar, despite increasing input prices, in most segments of real estate development and to ensure buyers’ affordability of owning a home.

Property prices have already started rising by around 5-10%, depending on property, location, available stock etc. "Q3 2021 saw an increase in the average property prices across top cities of 1-4%," says Anuj Puri. He sees prices to appreciate in the range of 5-10%.

Puri also expects the share of the large players (Grade A and organised developers) to increase.