Unanticipated exogenous shocks likely: U.S. Fed

In a clear indication that the U.S. central bank is unlikely to embark on a rate cutting spree as earlier envisaged by the Wall Street, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson delivered a frank assessment at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., cautioning that the path forward is fraught with uncertainty and significant risks.

Jefferson's remarks on the topic -- Is This Time Different? Recent Monetary Policy Cycles in Retrospect -- highlighted the precarious balance the Federal Reserve must navigate between stifling inflation and fostering economic stability. With a note of caution, he suggested that while every economic cycle presents unique challenges, the current landscape is particularly unpredictable, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is bracing for potential turmoil.

“We cannot know if there will be unanticipated exogenous shocks that require a policy response different from what will be envisaged at the beginning of the easing cycle. All we can do is assess the risks as best we can, given the available information and our best forecasts,” said Jefferson.

The Vice Chair pointed to three looming risks that could derail progress on inflation and economic recovery: a resilience in consumer spending that outpaces expectations, a potential weakening in employment as supportive factors wane, and the ever-present shadow of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. “Unfortunately, the history that I have reviewed today suggests that we should not be surprised if some kind of unanticipated shock occurs. Given that we must accept that uncertainty is present, we consider the risks that can affect our outlook and forecasts,” said Jefferson. The mention of these risks paints a picture of a global economy at a crossroads, with the potential for escalated conflicts to disrupt commodity prices and shake the foundations of financial markets worldwide.

Jefferson, however, expressed a cautious optimism regarding the trajectory of inflation, underscoring a commitment to closely monitoring incoming data to steer the course of monetary policy. Yet, the underlying message was clear: the Federal Reserve stands on alert, ready to respond to the unforeseen shocks that history suggests are almost inevitable.

Jefferson emphasised the critical need for policymakers to remain vigilant and adaptable, given the rapid pace at which inflationary trends can shift. This point was underscored by the unforeseen economic repercussions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, which exacerbated the inflationary pressures already heightened by post-pandemic supply chain disruptions. Moreover, Jefferson warned against the pitfalls of overly aggressive monetary easing in reaction to temporary improvements in inflation metrics. He cited the cautionary tale of 1967, when a premature easing of monetary policy, driven by a desire to counteract slowing economic growth and diminishing inflation fears, ultimately reignited inflationary pressures. "Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker stressed this danger in a 1981 speech, when he pointed to 1967 as a year when monetary policy eased in response to concerns about slowing economic growth and reduced inflation concerns, yet inflation subsequently turned back up," pointed out Jefferson.

Following the pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, inflation surged dramatically. To mitigate this, the Fed embarked on a series of rate hikes, adjusting its benchmark rate 11 times. With inflation coming off from above 9% to 3.4%, the Fed had signalled a pause in rate adjustments, contemplating rate reductions in 2024. Post-January's Fed meeting, market expectations had shifted to a potential rate cut in May, diverging from previous predictions of a March adjustment. But with the latest comment from Jefferson, the markets will be on tenterhooks.

This candid admission from a top Federal Reserve official underscores the delicate act of balancing economic policy in an era of unprecedented challenges. Jefferson's reflections reveal a sobering reality: while policymakers can forecast and plan, this time it could be different!