COP29 and India’s battle against climate change at home
While India is pressing developed countries at Baku’s COP29 summit to provide $1.3 trillion a year till 2030 for developing countries to fight climate change “without subjecting them (developing countries) to growth-inhibiting conditionalities in the provision of finance”, equally big challenges loom at home.
These need to be addressed immediately because extreme weather events are growing alarmingly. A recent study showed, 93% of days of the first nine months of 2024 — 255 out of 274 days — saw heat and cold waves, cyclones, lightning, heavy rain, floods and landslides — up from 235 of 273 days of such events in 2023. Such events are devastating life (killing 3,238 people, 9,457 livestock and impacting 2 million ha of crops in nine months of 2024 alone). An RBI report of 2023 had warned “up to 4.5 per cent of India’s GDP could be at risk by 2030” due to such events and “depress the living standards of nearly half of its population by 2050”. According to the climate disaster database EM-DAT, climate disaster affected over 100 million Indians and cost a loss of $120 billion since 2000; affecting 15 million and causing over 2,000 deaths in 2023 alone.
Count the challenges.
Elephants at home
Challenge 1: On November 9, 2024, a New York Times’ investigation pointed out how the ‘green’ revolution is poisoning New Delhi’s air. It referred to the Timarpur-Okhla waste-to-energy plant which, its tests found, was releasing toxins several times more than safe limits, endangering life in the residential neighbourhoods: Cadmium (19 times), manganese (11 times), arsenic (10 times), lead (four times) and cobalt (three times). This was because current and former workers at the plant told the reporter that “some of the basic steps needed to operate safely have been skipped from the very beginning for a simple reason — to cut costs.”
This laxity and lack of regulatory oversight is widespread. Recall how the Yamuna and Ganga rivers looked pristine and sparking blue during the lockdown of 2020? It was because all industrial throwing their untreated effluents into these rivers were shut. For decades, no data is available on industries channelling their untreated effluents to Yamuna, for example. Did you know 46% of Delhi’s population does not have a sewage system and sewage flows directly to stormwater drains? This was exactly what an IIT-Delhi had told NGT in 2014. The report hasn’t yet been updated.
Challenge 2: On November 12, 2024, Jayant Bhandari, a mining and metal consultant, wrote on ‘X’: “Indian factories with emissions routinely switch off pollution control devices at night. When I supplied monitoring equipment, we were always asked to recalibrate them to show a fraction of the actual figures.” He was reacting to a video showing a sprinkler installed near an AQI measuring equipment in Uttar Pradesh to reduce the AQI count.
Challenge 3: On November 10, 2024, the ICAR’s satellite images showed stubble-burning had shifted from Punjab (345) and Haryana (22) to Madhya Pradesh (783), Uttar Pradesh (128) and Rajasthan (79). Why did this happen? Officials tasked with pollution control often don’t realise that a big reason for this is mechanised harvesting — which leaves far taller and massive crop residue as against manual harvesting. Arrests and fines and banning procurement from farmers for stubble burning — as Haryana has resorted to — are hardly the right solutions. The other factor for stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana is delayed kharif sowing to check ground water depletion (by timing kharif sowing from pre-monsoon to monsoon).
Challenge 4: On October 4, 2024, Supreme Court expressed concern over the inaction of Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) and governments of Delhi and neighbouring states and said “holding of meetings will not yield anything; action must follow”. The CAQM was set up without due deliberations (twice through ordinance in 2021 and then passed in August 2021 amidst disruptions over the Pegasus issue) and without studying why the previous mechanism, the SC-appointed panel, had failed to deliver. CAQM has invited the court’s censure right from the beginning.
Challenge 5: In November 2023, during the Diwali, ruling party MPs and Ministers were accused of violating the Supreme Court’s ban on firecrackers in New Delhi (to check air pollution).
There are other elephants in the room.
Idle renewable capacity
India has made rapid progress in installing renewable energy — solar and wind (also hydel). The NITI Aayog’s dashboard data shows, as on September 30, 2024, installed capacity of solar and wind energy were up at 30.5% of the total installed energy capacity (with hydel, total RE capacity is 46.3%) but generation of power from solar and wind remains at 11.5% of the total in 2023-24.
This isn’t only because of low plant load factor (PLF) for solar and wind plants – 18.4% against 67.8% for coal in 2023-24 (NITI Ayog) but something else: Evacuation and buyers.
Challenge 6: On September 17, 2024, Prahlad Joshi, MNRE Minister, said his ministry faced two challenges: (a) evacuation (transmission and distribution) and (b) financing for both new RE plants and evacuation. Multiple reports of September 2024 said “grid access delays” had hit transmission and growth of RE and evacuation systems for most RE projects might not be ready until 2029. An October 4 news report said 10 leading RE firms were looking to sell 20 GW capacity assets (operational and under-construction) because of scarcity of power purchase agreements (PPAs), lack of power supply agreements (PSAs) and transmission issues.
Challenge 7: On February 2, 2024, a Central Electricity Authority (CEA) report said, “a significant amount of generation capacity including RE capacity” had transformed India into “power surplus”. It also said, the power distribution sector needed investment of ₹4.28 lakh crore by 2027 but DISCOMS lacked sufficient funds and needed additional funds of ₹2.3 lakh crore by 2027.
Challenge 8: How much is India’s surplus or idle energy capacity? There are no official accounts. Here is one example for illustration. Controversial gas-fired Dabhol Power Project of Maharashtra – built by now bankrupt Enron in 1990s which became NTPC subsidiary, Ratnagiri Gas and Power Private Ltd (RGPPL), in 2005 – has installed capacity of 2,000 MW. It is lying idle since 2022 (shut down) because of factors including non-availability of gas. India is pushing ahead with coal-fired power plants even as it pushes clean energy (solar, wind and hydrogen). It has declared to export coal by 2025-26; extended coal mining contract to 2052; increased coal mining auctions; re-opened abandoned coal mines; sanctioned funds for explorations and setting of new coal-fired plants – exactly opposite to its commitments of phasing down coal at the COP27 and COP28.
Other elephants
At the COP29, two critical reports were released. One was the Global Carbon Budget report 2024 which showed India would be the fastest growing emitter of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels in 2024 (4.6%), compared to the EU (3.8%), the US (0.6%), China (0.2%) and the rest of world (1.1%). True, India is a minor player with 8% share of CO2 emission, compared to 32% by China, 13% by the US and 7% by the EU. Also true, India needs more energy for growth.
The other was the US EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook which said: “India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption…Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally.”
Both these reports point to the need for India to prioritise investments on transmission and distribution for existing installed capacity.
At the COP28, India didn’t commit to cut down methane emissions, second only to fossil fuel in causing climate crisis nor committee to cooling-related emissions (which includes refrigeration for food, medicine and air conditioning etc.). Its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of 2022 had skirted (didn’t commit) to protect forests (carbon sinks) or reduce deforestation.
Now consider these developments.
On August 8, 2024, environment minister Bhupender Yadav told the Rajya Sabha that India had lost 1,733 sq km forests in 10 years due to developmental activities. This is a loss of carbon sink.
Forest Conservation (Amendment) Act of 2023 dilutes protections against de-forestation by changing the definition of forests (later reversed by Supreme Court) and giving exemptions from forest clearances – up to 100 km in international borders, up to 10 ha for security-related infrastructure, up to 5 ha in naxal-affected areas, land not notified as forest (“deemed forest” not declared forests in government records due to omission errors alone accounts for 27.62% of the total forest cover but formally not notified as forests) etc.
Jan Vishwas (Amendment) Act of 2023 weakens protections under the Environment Protection Act of 1986, Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act of 1986 and Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act of 1974 – by de-criminalising pollutions and hands over adjudicating powers to government servants (away from independent authorities and courts).