Guarding Against The Ukraine War Premium

A military conflict 4,983 kms from mainland India may seem like the last thing to hit the Indian economy, its companies or the consumers. But Russia’s Ukraine invasion has yet again proved that in an increasingly inter-dependent world economic trouble could emerge from the most unsuspecting quarters.

For instance, with Ukraine-Russia together accounting for 90% of India’s sunflower oil requirement (edible oils have at least 15% sunflower oil), supplies have ground to a halt. Besides, Russia — the world’s largest natural gas exporter — also supplies 42% of the world’s ammonium nitrate (raw material for fertilisers), 21% of global wheat, 43% of palladium, 14% of platinum, 11% of nickel & 6% of world’s aluminium. Together, Ukraine and Russia account for 40-50% of global neon production. All of which have consequences for multiple sectors of global economy, including electronics.

It’s being termed the ‘Gloomy Quadrilateral’ — a heady concoction of spiking crude, rising gold prices, pessimistic foreign investors and weakening rupee. Little wonder then, that Nomura predicts India would be the most adversely impacted in Asia by consequent higher inflation, weaker current account, fiscal imbalance and a lower GDP growth.

So how to ring-fence against the impact? Ashutosh Kumar, Rajiv Ranjan Singh and Ajita Shashidhar spoke to scores of experts to answer how to deal with the Ukraine shock on macro economy, commodities and consumption economy. Most importantly, how to take the lead in creating a new ‘non-aligned’ global financial system that won’t bow to the wishes of any global super-power.

Ukraine-Russia conflict has yet another fallout — on India’s flourishing unicorns club. Several domestic and global factors are coming together to make it harder for start-ups to raise funds — especially, the growth and late-stage start-ups. Strained geo-political scenario, unstable stock market and the US Federal Reserve’s intent to raise interest rates will all raise the stakes for India’s fast-growing start-up community, particularly the weaker ones.

Among other stories in the issue, as Fortune India chronicles the fast-changing landscape of Indian business, read Ajita Shashidhar’s account of a dramatic change taking place in India’s ₹1.80-lakh-crore milk industry. For 50 years, it has been dominated by milk co-operatives who brought about our famed ‘White Revolution’ of the 70s, making India the world’s largest milk producing nation in just two decades. Now, a host of smart, nimble players are giving them a run for their money. With high quality premium milk, they are nibbling away market share in plain vanilla milk production and supply, the home turf of co-operatives. Importantly, with innovations and intensive use of technology, they are taking away nearly all the growth in value-added products such as paneer, cheese, ghee, yogurts, milk shakes and traditional mithais. Read how they are winning against the mighty co-operatives.

The special package this issue though is Fortune India’s iconic 40 Under 40 listing. This edition of the annual study packs in young achievers from industries as diverse as satellite manufacturing to sustainable hospitality; smart tech healthcare to data science and edtech to swappable batteries. Savour the dive into the minds of 40 of India’s best and brightest.