Prices In A Knot

STEEL REBAR FUTURES dropped to CNY3,300 per tonne in late June, hitting their lowest point since 2017 amid signs of weakening demand. In May, new home prices in China fell nearly 4%, the largest drop since 2015. According to the World Bank’s Commodity Outlook, steel prices are projected to decline 9% in 2024, with another 5% decrease projected in 2025. The World Bank notes that steel demand is likely to remain subdued in 2024 due to ongoing weakness in China’s residential construction activity, following a 20% decline in new home starts in 2023. As a result, Indian steel export prices are expected to trend lower as hot-rolled coil coming from China have fallen to $520 per tonne against $650 levels for Indian steel exports. Rebar prices, too, are expected to trend lower.

Flirting With Lows

LITHIUM PRICES plunged a 35-month low in June 2024, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data, maintaining a tight range since plummeting to two-year lows in December 2023. This trend is driven by an ongoing surplus of raw materials for electric vehicle battery manufacturers, which continues to keep prices low across the sector. Lithium, a crucial element in manufacturing electric vehicles, contributes to making EVs more affordable. For domestic EV makers lower lithium prices is good news as EV sales have surged 41% in FY24.

On The Boil

ETHANOL PRICES have risen by 0.38 $/gallon, or 22.54%, since the beginning of 2024. Ethanol reached an all-time high of $4.33/gallon in June 2006. The government has increased prices of ethanol derived from C heavy molasses by 14% year-on-year to ₹56.28 per litre ($0.68/l) for the supply year between November 2023 and October 2024. Global ethanol production has significantly increased since the pandemic began in 2020, primarily owing to rising demand for ethanol as a gasoline fuel substitute, which has also led to a surge in prices.