IMD forecasts ‘above normal’ rain in 2nd half of monsoon

As the monsoon fury wreaks havoc in several parts of the country, including Delhi, Kerala, Himachal and Uttarakhand, the Indian Meteorological Department(IMD), in its latest forecast for the second half of the season, says the country would see "above normal" rainfall in August and September.

The above normal rainfall (>106% of LPA) is most likely to cover most parts of the country, except some areas in the northeast and adjoining regions of east India, Ladakh, Saurashtra & Kutch, and some pockets of central and peninsular India. These areas, says the IMD, could likely experience "below normal" rainfall.

"The monthly rainfall over the entire country for August 2024 is most likely to be within the normal range (94 to 106 % of LPA)," says the IMD, adding that the month will see normal to above normal rain with the exception of central and adjoining northern peninsular India, northeast and adjoining areas of east India, parts of northwest and south peninsular India where it'll be "below normal" monsoon.

Additionally, most parts of the country will experience "above normal maximum temperatures", with the exception of Gangetic plains, central India and the southeast coast in August. They will see below-normal max temperatures. "Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except southeast Peninsular India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely during August 2024," the IMD says.

The weather department says neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail in the equatorial Pacific region. "Forecasts suggest La Nina is likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon season towards the end of August."

It adds that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevailing over the Indian Ocean will continue until the end of the monsoon. The IMD says it will issue the forecast for rainfall during September by the end of August 2024.

Notably, massive floods and landslides due to rains in Wayanad, Kerala, have led to the death of at least 194 people and more than 200 have been injured even as the rescue work is still underway. It has been the worst natural disaster in the state since the 2018 floods. Officials say around 8,300 people have been rescued from affected areas to relief camps.

At least seven people have died due to rain in Delhi-NCR as the national capital experienced heavy rains. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have been impacted by the flooding and rise in water levels. Torrential rains in Himachal on Wednesday caused devastation in Shimla, Kullu and Mandi after cloudbursts in these districts left at least two dead and 50 missings.

In Uttarakhand, at least 10 people have already died. Kedarnath, Dehradun, Haldwani and Chamoli have been affected the most. Many passengers have been stuck in tourist places like Kedarnath due to continuous landslides and road damage. The weather department has issued a "heavy to very heavy rain" alert in Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal, Uttarakhand and UP on August 1, 2024.