Paytm shares hit record low; ICICI Securities initiates 'Buy' rating

Shares of Paytm parent One97 Communications fell over 3% on Monday to close at an all-time low of ₹807 per share on BSE.

This comes as brokerage firm ICICI Securities initiated coverage on the digital payments major's stock with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of ₹1,352 -- about 67% higher than its current level.

Stocks of India's top tech companies such as Paytm, Nykaa and Zomato have tanked to their lowest levels in the recent past, eroding thousands of crores of market capitalisation of these firms.

According to ICICI Securities, Paytm calls for evaluation and assessment quite differently and distinctly, especially given the management's "high growth aspirations calling for significant investments" and cash burn, rapidly evolving business model, highly competitive landscape with low switching cost and leading players with deep pockets getting aggressive and regulatory uncertainties.

The report estimates Paytm's intrinsic business value at ₹94,000 crore compared with a market capitalisation of about ₹53,000 crore currently. As of December 2021, Paytm's two-sided digital ecosystem of 64.4 million average monthly transacting users (MTUs) from more than 350 million consumer base and over 24.9 million merchants is core to its unit economics, it says.

"Anticipating enriched unit economics following positive payment business contribution and scale up of financial services, we arrive at lifetime customer value of ₹2,000 per MTU and ₹29,600 per merchant," the brokerage adds.

This comes days after foreign brokerage Macquarie Capital Securities further slashed the target price of Paytm to ₹700, an extremely bearish outlook for the stock which had ended Day 1 at 27% lower than its issue price of ₹2,150.

The brokerage has been bang on with its price targets for One97 Communications ever since it made a dismal public market debut on November 18, 2020.

"The path to profitability still remains the biggest concern," Macquarie analyst Suresh Ganapathy told Fortune India earlier this month. The massive loss of ₹780 crore reported in the third quarter, led by large stock options cost of ₹390 crore prompted Ganapathy to cut his target price on the stock.

The analyst has been critical of Paytm's business model, especially the distribution business. "Loan distribution business is still subscale with the company distributing only 39,000 merchant loans, which accounts just 2% of the overall loans by volume," he had said.

One97 Communications, which launched the country’s largest-ever initial public offering (IPO) last year, has seen a selloff by anchor investors such as Blackrock, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, and Singapore's GIC ever since the lock-in expired on December 15, 2021.

Meanwhile, shares of fashion and beauty retailer Nykaa tanked over 6% to hit a record low of ₹1,315.55 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). The stock of FSN E-Commerce Ventures, Nykaa's parent, has been sliding after the company reported a 58% fall in its net profit in the third quarter. The e-tailer's operating margin had contracted by 697 basis points to 6.3% in the quarter compared with 13.2% in the year-ago period.