BSNL gains ground amid subscriber exodus from private telcos; here's why

India's telecom market, dominated by Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea, is undergoing notable churn as private players implement broad-based tariff hikes. The latest data released by TRAI shows the contrasting performance of public-owned BSNL, which was the sole telecom operator to have gained subscribers in September, against the consistent losses faced by private operators.

BSNL added 8.49 lakh wireless subscribers in September, bringing its total additions since July to 63.14 lakh, driven largely by unchanged tariffs and affordable entry-level plans. These additions account for over 7% of the total wireless subscribers of BSNL. The figures include both BSNL and its virtual network operator service that was launched in 2018. The firm, currently working to roll out its delayed homegrown 4G network by mid-2025, is benefitting from a shift in consumer behavior amid rising costs.

Meanwhile, Reliance Jio recorded its third consecutive month of subscriber losses, shedding 79.69 lakh wireless subscribers in September, its largest drop this year. This follows a cumulative loss of 1.27 crore users since July, representing 2% of its September-end base of 46.37 crore. Airtel lost 14.34 lakh subscribers in September, while Vodafone Idea saw a decline of 15.53 lakh.

Unchanged tariffs and rural growth fuel BSNL growth

The wireless subscriber base of state-owned BSNL climbed to 9.18 crore in September, reflecting a 6.45% growth from 8.63 crore in May, driven by gains in both rural and urban subscribers. In contrast, private telecom players witnessed declines, with Jio's subscriber base shrinking 2.28% to 46.4 crore, Vodafone Idea dropping 2.6% to 21.2 crore, and Airtel seeing a modest 1% dip to 38.3 crore over the same period (May-September).

The decline in wireless subscriptions was largely fuelled by losses in the rural markets. Between May and September, rural subscribers fell by almost 2% for both Airtel and Jio, while Vodafone Idea saw a sharper drop of 4%. Urban trends, however, revealed a striking contrast. Jio recorded the steepest urban decline of 3%, dropping from 26.5 crore subscribers in May to 25.8 crore in September. Vodafone Idea and Airtel saw marginal urban dips of 1.57% and 0.07%, respectively. Meanwhile, BSNL's urban subscribers grew by 5% to 6.2 crore, while rural subscribers surged 9.69% to 2.9 crore, underlining its expanding footprint amid tariff pressures from private operators.

Currently, Bharti Airtel leads with the highest Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of ₹233 per month, followed by Reliance Jio at around ₹195 and financially-beleaguered Vodafone Idea at ₹156. BSNL trails with a reported ARPU of ₹90, catering to its entry-level users and rural markets. Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea raised mobile tariffs in July by 12-25%, breaking a 30-month freeze. Meanwhile, BSNL, despite operating at a loss, chose to maintain its existing rates, boosting its appeal as an affordable alternative.

What triggered from these tariff hikes was the widespread SIM consolidation and subscription cancellations, leading to a record decline of 1 crore wireless subscriber connections in September, the largest drop ever for private telecom operators. Additionally, requests for Mobile Number Portability (MNP) remained high, with 1.33 crore submissions in September.

Airtel has declined to comment on the recent decline in its subscriber base and is reportedly undergoing significant top management reshuffles.

Market share remains the same

In terms of wireless subscribers’ market share, there have been minimal changes. Jio, which held the largest share of 40.6% in May, has seen a slight decline to 40.19%. Airtel experienced a marginal increase from 33.17% in May to 33.23% in September. Vodafone’s market share decreased slightly from 18.6% in May to 18.4% in September, while BSNL’s share rose from 7.38% to 7.96% over the same period.

Broadband subscriber base and M2M cellular subscribers see nominal growth

Jio's subscriber base, spanning wired and wireless broadband, shrank from 48.8 crore in July to 47.7 crore in September, driven by a 2% decline in wireless subscriptions. Airtel's growth rate also slowed, dropping from nearly 1% in June and July to below 0.25%, bringing its total subscriber count to 285.17 million. Vodafone Idea showed signs of recovery with a modest 0.35% growth in September, following negative growth in July and August.

In contrast, BSNL reported consistent growth, with its subscriber base climbing from 25.02 million in June to 37.73 million in September. The operator saw its highest growth rates in July (18%) and August (22%), fueled by wireless broadband subscriber additions.

Machine-to-machine (M2M) cellular mobile connections grew marginally by 3% between May and September, rising from 52.3 million to 54.64 million. In terms of market share as of September, Bharti Airtel led with 28.44 million subscribers, holding the largest share at 52.06%. It was followed by Vodafone Idea, Reliance Jio, and BSNL, with BSNL accounting for the smallest share at 5.54%.

When viewed over time, Reliance Jio recorded the highest growth among the operators, signalling a shift in the competitive dynamics of the M2M segment.