India's goods exports at $38.45 bn, marginally higher in December

India exported $38.45 billion worth of goods in December, marginally higher than $38.08 billion registered during the same month the previous year. The goods imports during the month showed a decline from $61.22 billion in December 2022 to $58.25 billion in December 2023, contributing to a reduction in the country's merchandise trade deficit during the month, data released by the Commerce Ministry on January 15 said.

The monthly trade data of the ministry estimates India's overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in December 2023 to be $66.33 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 4.25% over December 2022. Overall imports in December 2023 are estimated to be $71.50 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 7.18% over December 2022.

"India's merchandise trade deficit printed at $19.8 billion in December 2023, lower than ICRA's estimate of $22.7 billion, owing to a better-than-expected performance of exports in the month. Given this, we expect the CAD to print at about $16-18 billion in Q3 FY2024, lower than our earlier estimate of over $20 billion, albeit nearly twice the reading seen in Q2 FY 2024," Aditi Nayar, chief economist, Head Research and Outreach, ICRA Ltd says.

In December 2023, 17 of the 30 key merchandise sectors exhibited positive growth as compared to same period last year. These include iron ore (265.64%), tobacco (38.94%), meat, dairy & poultry products (29.76%), spices (27.68%), fruits & vegetables (25.36%), electronic goods (14.41%), gems & jewellery (14.07%), cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (13.5%), plastic & linoleum (10.43%), engineering goods (10.19%), handicrafts (9.37%), drugs & pharmaceuticals (9.3%), etc.

Under merchandise imports, 15 out of 30 key sectors exhibited negative growth in December 2023. These include sulphur & unroasted iron pyrites (-67.97%), transport equipment (-55.11%), vegetable oil (-39.21%), fertilisers, (-36.37%), project goods (-30.8%), petroleum, crude & products (-22.77%), silver (-19.11%), organic & inorganic chemicals (-15.58%), pearls, precious & semi-precious stones (-11.73%), iron & steel (-2.44%) etc were the items where the decline was more visible.

For the April-December 2023 period, India's overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) are estimated to be $565.04 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 1.87% over April-December 2022. Overall imports in April-December 2023 are estimated to be $ 634.39 billion, a negative growth of (-) 7.24% over April-December 2022.

Merchandise exports for the period April-December 2023 were $317.12 billion as against $336.3 billion during April-December 2022. Merchandise imports for the period April-December 2023 were $505.15 billion as against $548.64 billion during April-December 2022. The merchandise trade deficit for April-December 2023 was estimated at $188.02 billion as against $212.34 billion during April-December 2022, the ministry data says.

India's trade deficit has shown considerable improvement in April-December 2023. Overall trade deficit for April-December 2023 is estimated at $69.34 billion as compared to the deficit of $108.13 billion during April-December 2022, registering a decline of (-) 35.87%. The merchandise trade deficit during April-December 2023 is $188.02 billion compared to $212.34 billion during April-December 2022, registering a decline of (-) 11.45%.