India’s Q4 GDP expands by 6.1%; FY23 growth pegged at 7.2%

India's gross domestic product (GDP) rate surged to 6.1% in the January-March 2023 period, thanks to a pickup in the manufacturing activity, the latest data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) shows.

The GDP growth for Q4 FY23 was higher than the 4.5% expansion reported in Q3 FY23, while it stood at 4% in the January-March quarter last year, the government data shows.

For the whole fiscal year 2022-23, the MoSPI has released a provisional estimate of 7.2% GDP growth, which is 20 basis points higher than the Centre's second advance estimates of 7%.

Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in the year 2022-23 attained a level of ₹272.41 lakh crore vs ₹234.71 lakh crore in 2021-22, showing a growth rate of 16.1%, it said.

"GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 2022-23 is estimated at ₹43.62 lakh crore, as against ₹41.12 lakh crore in Q4 2021-22, showing a growth of 6.1 percent. GDP at Current Prices in Q4 2022-23 is estimated at ₹71.82 lakh crore, as against ₹65.05 lakh crore in Q4 2021-22, showing a growth of 10.4 per cent," the ministry said.

As per the government, the real GDP at constant prices in FY 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of ₹160.06 lakh crore, as against the first revised estimates of GDP for FY22 of ₹149.26 lakh crore. The growth in real GDP during 2022-23, however, is estimated at 7.2%, down from 9.1% in 2021-22.

The current level of GDP is higher than estimated by financial institutions, though the estimates for the full fiscal year match the expectations. For Q4 of FY23, SBI Research had projected the country’s GDP to grow at 5.5%. The central bank of India had estimated Q4 FY23 real GDP growth to be at 5.1%.

For the full fiscal year, SBI had estimated the country’s GDP growth at 7.1% in FY23. In its second advance estimate, the National Statistical Office in February also projected the country’s real GDP would grow at 7% in FY23.

The RBI also had pegged India's full fiscal year growth at above 7%. It projected India's economic activity remains resilient and the higher rabi production has brightened the prospects for the agriculture sector and rural demand.

Global financial agency IMF in its latest 'Regional Economic Outlook' had earlier said emerging markets and developing economies, including India and China, are expected to account for about 80% of global growth this year and next, with India alone expected to contribute over 15%.

The report said Asia will contribute about 70% of global growth this year, a much greater share than in recent years, and the growth in Asia and the Pacific is forecast to accelerate to 4.6% in 2023 from 3.8% last year.