Lok Sabha polls 2024: Low voter turnout debate in 2 phases is a ‘myth’; here's why

In absolute terms, 8.7 lakh more voters have cast their votes in the first two phases of Lok Sabha polls 2024, with 60% of parliamentary seats showing either an increase in votes cast or status quo, an SBI Research note says. With a clear uptrend in absolute numbers, debates around supposedly low voter turnout in the first two phases of the General Elections 2024 turn out to be a “myth”, the latest report titled ‘WHITE NOISE: A J-SHAPED voting on the anvil’ says.

The increase in the number of votes cast shows an improvement of 0.4% above high levels in 2019. “Women voters continue to outstrip men. The numbers can swell in the remaining 5 phases with earnest efforts from the Election Commission of India and based on voter turnout probabilities,” writes Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI Research.

In terms of absolute numbers in the first 2 phases, the data analysed from the Election Commission's reports shows, 8.7 lakh additional voters have voted, up 0.4% over the first 2 phases of 2019, with women voters outstripping men in incremental numbers.

“A welcome and encouraging trend visible through our analysis pertains to the increase in absolute votes in the reserved constituencies vis-à-vis the open constituencies. Of the total 8.7 lakh increase in voters, ~70% happened in 42 reserved (SC+ST) constituencies only,” the report says.

In the previous polls, the voting pattern showed a declining trend over the 7 phases, starting at 69.4%, finishing at 61.7% and reaching a cumulative average of 67.7%. In Lok Sabha 2024 polls, “a reverse phenomenon could be underway, with voting percentage poised for a marked improvement”, says SBI. The absolute numbers in Phase 1 and Phase 2 were 66.1% and 66.7%, respectively.

The Phase 3 polling is underway today and more than half of the parliamentary seats and registered electorates will be covered. The first two phases spread across 191 seats, covering 35% of the registered voters.

State-wise, Karnataka accounts for the highest number of increase in voters in 2024, followed by Assam and Maharashtra. “Absolute voters casting votes increased more than 1 lakh in 85 constituencies whereas in 25 constituencies, there has been status quo.” This shows that 60% of the constituencies exhibited either an increase or no marked difference.

In its forecast, SBI Research says the turnout within parliamentary seats in future phases should be on the higher side. Notably, for the remaining phases the average male voter per seat is 9.61 lakh and the average female voter is 8.98 lakh per seat. “The scorching summer and sweeping heat waves might have played a spoilsport for a certain percentage of voters willing yet unable to exercise the franchise.”

The two phases of the 2024 general elections have happened so far with total voter turnout at 66.1% in Phase 1 and 66.7% in Phase 2, which is almost 3.1% less than last year.