Met dept retains normal monsoon forecast in second update

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted normal rainfall across India this year in its second stage forecast for southwest monsoon released today. The weather department, in quantitative terms, projected the seasonal rainfall over the country between June and September as whole to be 103% of the long period average (LPA) this year.

IMD categorises rainfall in the range of 96% to 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm for the four-month monsoon season, starting from June, as normal. The benchmark was upgraded in the first stage long-range monsoon forecast that was released in April.

In the first stage long-range monsoon forecast, the weatherman had predicted seasonal rainfall to be 99% of the LPA.

“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the four homogeneous regions is most likely to be above normal for central India (above 106% of LPA) and south peninsula (above 106% of LPA). Rainfall is most likely to be normal over northeast India (96-106% of LPA) and northwest India (92-108% of LPA),” IMD projected for the entire monsoon season this year.

The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rain-fed agriculture regions, is most likely to be above normal, that is, above 106% of LPA, the met department predicts.

“Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially with most parts of the country expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall except some parts of eastcentral, east and northeast India and extreme southwest peninsular India, where it is likely to be below normal,” it further adds.

The ongoing La Niña conditions from 2021 had slightly weakened in January and February this year, but returned from March 2022 onwards. Currently, moderate La Niña conditions are prevailing over the Pacific. The latest global models forecast indicate that the La Niña conditions are likely to continue during the upcoming monsoon season, IMD says.

La Niña refers to the natural and cyclical cooling of parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean along the tropical west coast of South America. It affects weather across the globe, along with its counterpart El Nino, and results in better than normal monsoon in the country.

In June, normal or above normal rainfall is most likely over many parts of northwest and central India, northern parts of south peninsula and some parts of east India. Below normal rainfall is most likely over many parts of northeast India, some pockets of central and east India and southern parts of south peninsular India, the weather man says.

Next month, below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some parts of northwest India where above normal maximum temperatures are likely, IMD says. Meanwhile, below normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except many parts of northwest and northeast India where above normal minimum temperatures are likely, it further adds.