Modi’s Political Capital

GUDIYA DEVI has been living in Patna for more than a decade. In the late 2000s, she migrated along with her parents when she was just a kid, as they set out from their ancestral village in Masaurhi, about 50 km from Patna, in search of livelihood. To make ends meet, Gudiya’s father worked as a rickshaw puller, doubling as a menial labour, while her mother worked as a domestic help to supplement the household income. The family of five, including Gudiya’s younger sister and brother, used to stay in a rented one-room accommodation in the Shiv Puri locality of Patna, serving the households of predominantly retired government servants. Soon, Gudiya, too, started accompanying her mother, and in no time, was working independently.

In 2018, she was married to Praveen, a migrant himself from Jahanabad district, deft at making traditional snacks, including samosas and gol gappas, who earned his livelihood selling his delicacies on a cart in the neighbouring Boring Road locality, one of the key commercial hubs of the city. After marriage, the couple applied for housing subsidy under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Rural (PMAY) — the scheme of the Ministry of Rural Affairs and state governments for financial assistance for construction of pucca houses to the homeless living in dilapidated houses. Praveen and Gudiya now have a pucca house of their own in Jehanabad district of Bihar. The dwelling is part of 2.57 crore houses that have been built under PMAY (Rural) till date, according to data from the Ministry of Rural Development. The Jan Dhan account opened post 2014 came in handy for them as the subsidy for construction of the house was transferred to the account directly.

Praveen now works as a cook in a doctor’s clinic in Patna and lives in a rented accommodation, while Gudiya plans to kick-off a tiffin supply start-up of her own. From migrant labourers who moved in search of menial jobs to some stability, and a house that they can call home, the couple’s life has undergone a sea change in the last 10 years. The couple has started saving for their two daughters under the Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana — a savings scheme targeted at the girl child bearing interest rate of 8.20% (January-March 2024) launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in January 2015.

The story of Praveen and Gudiya is not an isolated development, but a microcosm of how life changes when government policies are effectively transferred and implemented on the ground. Their story finds resonance across Central government schemes in which beneficiaries have had similar life-changing experiences — be it Pradhan Mantri Gareeb Kalyan Anna Yojana, which promises to provide free foodgrain to over 80 crore people for the next five years; Ayushman Bharat Yojana, the free healthcare scheme for the poor; Ujjwala Yojana, aimed at providing free LPG to women from deprived households dependent on firewood, coal, cow dung, or Har Ghar Jal (Jal Jeevan Mission), the potable drinking water scheme for every household.

Schemes And More

Gudiya Devi does not mince words when asked who she will vote for in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. “Jo itna kiya hai, vote usi ko denge (Will vote for the one who has done so much for us),” she says. Her response underlines the fact that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) and especially Modi’s political capital lies in continued efforts towards empowering marginal sections, inclusivity and effective implementation of the schemes on ground via tools such as digitisation. And the constituency is really colossal.

Take for example the Jan Dhan Yojana — the financial inclusion scheme for banking the unbanked — which Modi kicked off immediately after taking over as Prime Minister in 2014. Finance ministry data shows a total of 51.87 crore accounts have been opened under the scheme till date having a balance of ₹2.20 lakh crore. If two and a half crore units have come up under the PMAY (Rural), eight lakh houses have been supported under the PMAY (Urban), which focuses on the urban poor and the slum dwellers, at a cost of ₹1.48 lakh crore, according to data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation. The government has already announced an extension of the Pradhan Mantri Gareeb Kalyan Anna Yojana, under which eligible households will continue to get 5 kg additional foodgrains over and above the Food Security Act allocation. The scheme, with an outlay of ₹11.8 lakh crore, will remain active till December 2028. Under the Jal Jeevan Mission, potable water has been provided to 11.2 crore households since the launch of the mission in August 2019.

In September last year, the Union Cabinet approved the extension of the Ujjwala Yojana for release of 75 lakh LPG connections over three years from 2023-24 to 2025-26, taking the total number of beneficiaries to 10.35 crore.

PM Modi’s clarion call for 400-plus seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha election has its foundation in the implementation of such pro-poor and pro-masses schemes, and party leaders are now vocal about it. “In 2014, we were among the fragile five economies of the world. There were corruption cases and many other challenges being faced by a lot of people. Delivery was a big challenge. In the last 10 years, the journey has been from a lost decade to tech-ade. From UPA to UPI, a lot has changed. The leadership mindset and trust has changed,” says Anurag Singh Thakur, I&B minister.

“The government has delivered on the ground. Around 120 million toilets have been made for women and the poor. Potable tap connection has been provided to 130 million people, 600 million are getting Ayushman Bharat — health coverage of up to ₹5 lakh. Apart from that, more than 800 million are going to get free foodgrains for the next five years. It is PM Modi’s guarantee. On one hand, the poor and marginalised are being helped. On the other hand, we have moved from the fragile five to the fifth-largest economy in the world,” adds Thakur.

Opposition On A Sticky Wicket?

In addition to the above factors, the Opposition, especially the Congress, is yet to find its feet amid the flailing INDIA alliance with Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar pulling the rug, and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee distancing herself from any alliance with Rahul Gandhi at the helm. The arrest of Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, once an anti-corruption crusader, on charges of corruption in Delhi liquor policy by ED does not bode well for the INDIA alliance either. The Congress Party had finalised a seat-sharing formula with AAP in New Delhi before Kejriwal’s arrest and will continue with the alliance, while communicating to the electorate that the arrest is akin to witch hunting by Centre. The Congress has also finalised seat-sharing pacts with Samajwadi Party in UP and MP. It may be noted that Rahul Gandhi’s Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra is pulling the crowds. Also the party, especially Gandhi, seems to have carefully shifted gears from hyperventilating on caste census to offering the party’s game plan on solutions to issues such as unemployment.

At the Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra in Rajasthan, Rahul Gandhi announced five major promises to the youth, including 30 lakh jobs. “If the Congress is voted to power, it will create 30 lakh government jobs. We will ensure guaranteed apprenticeship of all degree and diploma holders with a stipend of ₹1 lakh per year,” said Gandhi. The announcement also includes a “guaranteed first job” for which the party will bring out legislation — right to apprenticeship — if voted to power, in which every degree or diploma holder below the age of 24 will get paid internship in government or private sector. The other promises include freedom from paper leak, social security for gig workers and a ₹5,000 crore national fund to encourage start-ups. The youth focus seems to be a recognition on part of the Congress party that Mandal Politics does not fit the political vocabulary of new-age voters.

“This is a historic announcement targeted at the youth. This will change the destiny of the country as everything depends on the future of the youth. Since the last 10 years, the Modi government has only given jumla to the youth. It won’t happen anymore. Youth now has no patience,” says Pawan Khera, Congress leader.

Observers, however, are of the view that Congress promises lack credibility as of now and run the risk of ringing hollow with the electorate. “People have deep faith in PM Modi. They believe he will deliver what he promises... From lip service of yesteryears, there is actual delivery now. People doubt Congress’s capability to fulfil the promises it makes,” says Vinay K. Srivastava, associate professor, Institute of Technology and Science, Ghaziabad. Gandhi promised ₹6,000 per month under the Minimum Income Guarantee Scheme to the poor in the 2019 manifesto, but people did not buy it. Christened as Nyuntam Aay Yojana (Nyay), the poll agenda aimed at 50 million fell flat as the scheme failed to garner any support for the Congress party, whose total seat tally in the Lok Sabha remained flat. That said, the Congress party is pursuing the agenda of jobs, price rise and farm issue. The party has promised a legal guarantee to MSP if voted to power, adds Srivastava.

The Middle-Class Conundrum

Harping on jobs and price rise, the Congress party seems to be trying to attract the middle class — a constituency which has gained virtually nothing in the last 10 years of Modi rule, apart from the nationalistic gratification on the back of occasional Chinese and Pakistan bashing, and the cultural fulfilment of having a Grand Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. First and foremost, the income tax exemption limit and slabs have remained unchanged for about 10 years. Instead, the government came out with a concessional tax regime without exemption benefits with zero tax on annual income up to ₹7 lakh.

“Exemptions and deductions to individual taxpayers was an incentive to create a social security network for oneself. In a country of the size and scale of India, the government cannot provide social security to all. Therefore, tax savings schemes were created to encourage people,” says Ved Jain, past president, Institute of Chartered Accountants of India.

“Now, in order to increase the purchasing power in the hands of the taxpayer, the government is saying we will not push them to invest in tax savings schemes. The option is with them. But we will not impose tax on income up to ₹7 lakh. It looks attractive. But the problem is a challenge to social security and savings in the long run. Imagine, if one did not have a mediclaim, what would have happened in a situation like Covid,” adds Jain.

Petrol, diesel, LPG, PNG and CNG prices, too, have gone through the roof. On the face of it, the narrative is that the middle class is willing to pay higher fuel prices in the process of nation building. The reality of it will be known only on the day of the counting.

Yet another bane for the middle class is the imposition of 10% Long-term Capital Gains (LTCG) tax on capital gains over ₹1 lakh in sale of equity or equity mutual funds in Budget 2018. This is tantamount to double taxation as Securities Transaction Tax (STT) is already charged.

While both sides prepare for the big fight ahead, it is evidently clear that it is a long road for the Congress party, but for the BJP, too, the downside risks are many — political ramification of the electoral bond matter in Supreme Court, review petition in the Adani-Hindenburg matter and and disenchantment of the rural youth with the Agniveer scheme. With the polling all set to commence from April 19, the ball is now in the people’s court.