India among top 5 countries in critical tech, 3rd in AI globally: ASPI

India ranks in the top 5 countries for 45 of 64 critical technologies such as AI, biotechnology and defence tech, among others, in 2023, an increase from 37 last year, thereby emerging as a global research major. The country has displaced the U.S. as the 'second-ranked country' in two new technologies -- biological manufacturing and distributed ledgers, and it ranks second in seven of 64 critical technologies, according to the Critical Technology Tracker report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

When it comes to emerging techs like AI, India ranks third globally, only behind China and the U.S., and has made significant advances in computer and communications, ranking third in advanced data analytics, AI algorithms, machine learning, circuit designs, adversarial AI and natural language processing, the report finds out.

"While India does not yet lead in any of the 64 critical technologies (note that currently only China and the US lead in any technology), it’s a strong performer across a range of technologies, especially in biofuels and high-specification machining processes, making major gains since 2019," the latest report titled 'ASPI’s two-decade Critical Technology Tracker: The rewards of long-term research investment' says. India has shown "enormous gains" from 2003–2007, in which India only placed in the top 5 countries for four technologies, the report adds.

However, despite India’s upwards trajectory, few Indian institutions appear in the top 5 rankings across any period between 2003–2023. "By recent performance, only five Indian institutions place within the top 5 across the 64 technologies. Given that India currently does well at the national level (top 5 in 45 technologies), this finding suggests that the country’s research and scientific expertise in critical technologies is highly fragmented," the report highlights.

It says the lack of standout institutional performers may be limiting India’s ability to attract foreign research talent and motivate prominent Indian scientists and technologists to stay at, or come back to, Indian institutions. "This stands in contrast to a much smaller country such as Singapore, which manages to break into the top 5 countries ranking in only two technologies, supercapacitors and novel metamaterials, but is then equally well represented in the top 5 institution rankings by the Nanyang Technological University (top 5 for 3 technologies) and the National University of Singapore (top 5 for 2)."

India, however, seems poised to overtake China in its publication rate in biofuels within the next few years. "This is significant and would mark the only technology in which the lead country isn’t the US or China," the report adds.

The report reveals a shift in research leadership over the past two decades towards large economies in the Indo-Pacific, led by China’s exceptional gains. The US led in 60 of 64 technologies in the five years from 2003 to 2007, but in the most recent five years (2019–2023) is leading in seven. China led in just three of 64 technologies in 2003–2007, but is now the lead country in 57 of 64 technologies in 2019–2023, increasing its lead from our rankings last year (2018–2022), where it was leading in 52 technologies.

China is building the foundations to become the world’s leading S&T (science and technology) superpower by establishing an often-dominant lead in high-impact research in most critical and emerging technologies, says the report. However, China’s dominant high-impact research performance across so many technologies doesn’t necessarily equate to the same dominance in actualising those technologies. "In advanced aircraft engines, for example, 10 out of 10 of the world’s top-performing institutions in the Tech Tracker are in China, and the country currently produces over 70% of the world’s high-impact research.”

Another notable change involves the U.K., which has dropped out of the top 5 country rankings in eight technologies, declining from 44 last year to 36 now. Besides India and the UK, the performance of most secondary S&T research powers (those countries ranked behind China and the US) in the top 5 rankings is largely unchanged: Germany (27), South Korea (24), Italy (15), Iran (8), Japan (8) and Australia (7).

ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker is a dataset that allows users to track 64 technologies that are foundational for our economies, societies, national security, defence, energy production, health and climate security. It focuses on the top 10% of the most highly cited research publications from the past 21 years (2003–2023).